The night before the French election

It is unlikely that there will be many surprises in the French election on Sunday, the incumbent Nicolas Sarkozy and his main challenger, Francois Hollande will move on to the second round.  What is interesting, is what the vote will tell us about the French electorate's response to the candidacies on the extremes.  On the far right, Marine Le Pen hopes to at least match the percent of the vote received by her father in previous elections (~15%) and on the far left, Jean-Luc Melenchon's new left party hopes to come in third, giving the party a boost for future elections.  Steven Erlanger of the NY Times provides some context:

The success of Marine Le Pen's father, Jean Marie Le Pen, in 2002 was embarassing for French voters and has had an impact on subsequent elections.  Voters may be less likely to vote for extreme candidates to avoid an outcome where a mainstream candidate doesn't make it into the second round. I describe this as strategic voting in my book, Voting Radical Right in Western Europe. However, with the polls showing Hollande at around 30% of the vote, it is possible that far left voter's may feel that he is safe and vote for Melenchon.  I think it is more likely that voters will strategically abandon Marine Le Pen to give Sarkozy a boost into the second round.