Election night results in France

It was no surprise that Nicolas Sarkozy and Francois Hollande advanced to the second round of the French presidential election today, however, polls did not predict the nearly 20% of the vote received by the candidate for the French National Front, Marine Le Pen.  This is much higher than her father received even in the second round of the 2002 presidential election.  Without seeing detailed survey data, it is hard to know whether this was more of a protest vote against Sarkozy, or a vote for Marine Le Pen, but it is clear that this was a rebuke to Sarkozy, who had been trying to court far right voters with a tough stance on immigration policy during the last few weeks of the campaign. Voters chose the candidate with the tougher stance...this may eventually have an impact on policy, depending on the results of the French legislative elections in June. The latest word is that Le Pen will decide on May 1st if she will endorse a candidate.

These results may also give heart to far right politicians in places like the Netherlands, which is expected to call a snap election, and the UK.  The far right has been on the rise since at least the 1990s, so this is not a totally new trend, but the results for Le Pen may indicate increasing support, at least in France.

This vote will give a boost to the National Front as it heads into the legislative campaign, with the possibility that they may be able to get a few candidates into the French Assembly in June.  The election was a disappointment for Jean-Luc Melenchon, who was predicted to get as high as 15% of the vote, but only received approximately 10%.  Overall turnout was strong at 80%.

Early polls suggest that Francois Hollande will get 54% of the vote to Sarkozy's 46% in the second round on May 6th.  The next two weeks will be spent with the two candidates fighting for far left and far right votes. 

Websites with up-to-date information on the election:
New York Times: http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/international/countriesandterritories/france/index.html
UK Guardian:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/french-elections-2012
France 24 - with video:
http://www.france24.com/en/category/tags-th%C3%A9matiques/french-presidential-election-2012