I took a little break from the blog while getting over jet lag from Brussels and a quick trip to San Diego last weekend for the International Studies Association (ISA) conference. I presented a paper on EU immigrant integration policy on a panel related to global migration policy cooperation. Also, I was featured in the Daily Texan: http://www.dailytexanonline.com/university/2012/04/05/blogger-government-professor-exemplifies-foreign-policy-savvy
In the meantime, the Euro crisis continues as described in the following article from Slate: http://www.slate.com/articles/business/moneybox/2012/04/eurozone_debt_crisis_it_s_time_to_panic_about_it_again_.html?wpisrc=twitter_socialflow
Another interesting and in-depth report from CBS News: http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-202_162-57410910/an-imperfect-union-europes-debt-crisis/
While the situation in Greece is at least temporarily under control, a recent suicide is stirring up public passions. http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-202_162-57410812/greece-violence-erupts-after-memorial-for-suicide/
On the foreign policy front, in a commentary for the Chicago Council on Foreign Affairs, Alberto Coll makes an argument for why Europe is still important : http://2012summits.org/commentaries/detail/coll_1
At least one comment (i.e., Adam Luedtke's :-)) has noted that I sound Euroskeptic - to the contrary, I am certain that the EU will have no problem surviving the current crisis. However, I do think that it's very possible that Greece, and possible Portugal may end up leaving the Euro zone. I think the reasons for this are more political than economic -- there is a great deal of political uncertainty right now, and only time will tell if the government in Athens will be able to maintain the needed fiscal austerity measures in the face of public discontent. Just keep following the developments in this blog!
Wow, so a few weeks ago I would have said 0% chance of Greece leaving the Euro. While I still think the chances are minimal, the election really shook things up. Now we have to wait until June 17! My faith in Greece staying in rests on the reasons why the Greeks are voting again. The anti-bailout parties simply can't get a governing majority, nor is it clear that they would go into coalition with each other anyway, since they disagree on almost every other issue. But my growing (yet still small) fear that Greece will exit is because I predict another uncertain election result, and then either a third election (which would push things down a very dangerous road), or a high-stakes game of chicken between Germany on one side, and on the other side a Greek coalition composed of the 2 mainstreams and at least one anti-bailout party that is tempted to join the coalition through a promise that certain demands will be made of the EU and IMF in terms of loosening the bailout conditions. Then those demands will be presented, and Germany either caves and preserves the Euro, or rejects the demands and risks pushing Greece out. Frankly, I think it's likely that Germany would cave on a few small things, because the contagion from a Greek exit would be far more disastrous to their economy than a slight letup in austerity. But Merkel simply isn't willing to pay the political price for caving (CDU drop in polls) until she's sure it's her only option! And the only way that will happen is if the Greeks are actually able to form a government.
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