Brussels Forum - Day 1: Russia, Ukraine, NATO and the EU

Much of the discussion on the first day has focused on US-NATO-Russia relations. In the first discussion between German Defense Minister Ursula Van Der Leyen and Zbigniew Brzezinski discussed the role of the military in Germany and EU actions in regard to Ukraine. Von Der Leyen defended the focus on diplomacy in Ukraine. Brzezinski called for accommodation of some of Russia's aims but clear deterrence. As Von Der Leyen put it, there must be clear costs for Russia not only militarily or in loss of lives, but also in terms of economic loss. Brzezinski was also concerned that Putin flaunts the nuclear threat, something which hasn't happened in decades. He argued that the only outcome in Ukraine is one in which both sides can walk away with something for their constituents.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said that we are not in the days of the cold war, but we are not in the cooperative situation we were because Russia has broken the rules by sending troops and materiel into Eastern Ukraine, taking over Crimea, issues with Moldova and Georgia, etc...

David Ignatius of the WSJ asks how NATO would respond to a cyber attack - would it trigger artile 5? Stoltenberg basically says yes, any attack on any ally is something NATO is responding to - any kind of attach. Also have to defend NATO infrastructure. Kosachev asks if NATO would bomb a country that conducted a cyber attack?

Konstantin Kosachev, representing the Russian Federation Council on International Affairs focused on grievances going back to the end of the cold war. Says he doesn't understand NATO strategy and what would happen if certain member states would declare Russia as a country behind a cyber attack. Stoltenberg says NATO will respond in a proportionate way - won't say how we would respond. Kosachev says Russia would not respond militarily (the crowd is skeptical).

Secretary Victoria Nuland pointed out the the US hasn't decided whether or not to give Ukraine defensive weapons, but that it was still under consideration.

Federica Mogherini, High Representative of the EU for Foreign Policy asks if what is happening in Ukraine, what she sees as a violation of international law, will return to following the Minsk accord and an era of cooperation. Nuland hopes that Russia wants to live in a world where borders aren't changed by force, where journalism and free speech are respected, etc...US wanted to work with Russia, with strategic partnerships, but Russia is not interested in pursuing rules of the road.

What are the broader geo-strategic issues at stake with a rising China? Kosachev say Russia is in a perfect relationship with China. This isn't clear given Russia's economic situation...

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