The first panel of the conference, "Is the European Crisis Over" was predictably pessimistic. The consensus is that the crisis is definitely NOT over and that we may just be in the eye of the storm at the moment. There is still the possibility of an end to the Euro, and current policies (or lack thereof) are exacerbating the crisis. Panelists discussed issues surrounding the regime of the Eurozone and the inability of the EU countries to respond "snatching defeat from the jaws of victory" by pursuing neoliberal policies. Issues discussed included the lack of a Treasury partner, Iceland's much quicker recovery because of their ability to devalue their currency and that they did not bail out their banks.
The second panel, which I participated in, focused on issues related to labor, politics and the impact of austerity. Damon Silvers of the AFL-CIO discussed the situation for labor and labor unions. He has observed that German leaders are dealing with the moral politics of the crisis within Germany, and that they don't care necessarily about their trading partners on the European periphery, they care more about China. He noted that, "countries that are doing the right thing are nonetheless going over the cliff" - and shouldn't we look at whether or not they are actually doing the right thing? This has been a recurring thing throughout the conference, and was emphasized by the macroeconomic data presented by Gustav Horn, who argues that current policy has been a failure in producing the desired outcome, reducing debt burdens. Unemployment levels are unsustainable, and Greece has lost 25% of it's GDP since the crisis began. George Stathakis made a similar point, that the idea that "You can pay back your public debt through austerity" has been proven wrong. Greek unions no longer have collective bargaining. Later speakers would note that reducing wages might improve exports, but at the cost of domestic markets. The young and the unskilled have borne the brunt of loss of employment.
Yves Leterme of the OECD gave the keynote during lunch, talking about the need for reform in education, labor markets and training. In general he was more upbeat than other speakers about the future of the Eurozone, he feels that we are past the crisis and have reached a point of stability, given that the ECB has said that it will do whatever it takes to maintain the Eurozone.
In fact many are touting the success of austerity measures while unemployment is still rising and the young are being told that they must accept the loss of solidarity measure and lower their expectations. It remains to be seen if this will lead to a revolt by the young...
Here's the latest opinion piece by Wolfgang Munchau of the Financial Times:
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/1ceb7c36-42e1-11e3-8350-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2jiJ1ZBNQ
