Monday, March 26, 2012

Post-Brussels Forum musings and #B7 in the news

As a reminder, all video from the Brussels Forum is available on the website (http://brussels.gmfus.org/)  and You Tube, including the following clip which shows me towards the end ;-) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IAQBvQsi-pg&feature=player_embedded

As I think back over the Brussels Forum panels and events, the top issue seemed to be the situation in Syria, followed by developments in Afghanistan and Iran.  The Transatlantic relationship is often defined by events and conflicts in what Catherine Ashton would describe as "the neighborhood" -- and determing who will be taking action.  Turkey is an important player as are, of course, Russia and China.  This event gave me greater insight into the variables that are influencing top decision makers in the U.S. and Europe as well as the pressure being brought to bear by civil society.  Below are some reactions by the media to the panels:

Kuwait News Agency picks up on Rasmussen's comments at the Brussels Forum:  http://www.kuna.net.kw/ArticleDetails.aspx?id=2229306&language=en
as well as other sources: http://www.publicserviceeurope.com/article/1700/nato-not-in-crisis-but-stronger-than-ever-says-fogh-rasmussen

A perspective from AllthingsD:  http://allthingsd.com/20120324/allthingsd-sprouts-up-at-the-brussels-forum-rubbing-elbows-and-talking-tech/?mod=googlenews

A Wall Street Journal Blog focuses on China and Sanctions on Iran: http://blogs.wsj.com/brussels/2012/03/24/china-scored-over-iran-sanctions/?mod=google_news_blog

and a side interview looked at Euro zone challenges: http://blogs.wsj.com/brussels/2012/03/24/hormats-on-euro-zone-challenges/


Sunday, March 25, 2012

Brussels Forum Day 2 #BF7 - Economies, Energy and Afghanistan

Highlights from other panels on Saturday, March 24th.

The panel on debt, jobs and growth had to deal with a couple of last minute substitutions for panelists who were unable to make it, but it was an interesting discussion of potential measures to improve growth to create more jobs, while still focusing on reducing debt.  The European emphasized that it is not necessarily problematic for the government to be involved in developing jobs, and pointed out that Asian economies that have focused on developing infrastructure have improved competitiveness.  U.S. Representative Turner's comment that governments don't create jobs led the room to chuckle, given the size and importance of government in the labor market but panelists agreed with his statement “government doesn’t create jobs, government provides an environment in which jobs can be created.”.

The panel on energy security was of particular interest to me, coming from Texas.  The focus was on European energy supplies. with Ambassador Richard Morningstar emphasizing that European energy security is important to the U.S. because of trade and investment between the U.S. and EU.  In general, emphasis was placed on the need to have diversity in suppliers, and that hydrocarbons would continue to be at least 80% of energy supplies through 2030.  Shale gas is an important resource, now that technology has made it more accessible.  Iain Conn from BP noted that China is the #1 superpower buying up energy sources in the war for hydrocarbons and may find more shale within its territory. Conn also reassured the audience that drilling for shale was safe, just like drilling for oil (he noted the irony of this coming from a BP official).  An audience member asked about energy efficiency and conservation issues. Cost is an important factor, both in terms of high energy costs leading to more conservation, and cost dictating the role of renewables.  I asked about the fact that in Texas you can drive down a highway in West Texas and see oil rigs on one side and wind turbines on the other.  The BP executive gave the impression that this was unusual, that they have lots of property in Texas where this makes sense, but that it probably didn't make sense in Europe or other places.

I strongly encourage those with an interest in developments in Afghanistan to take a look at the video on the Brussels Forum website: http://brussels.gmfus.org/brussels-forum-day-two-recap/ Each of the panelists emphasized the fact that the term "endgame" was neither useful nor accurate.  Ambassador Marc Grossman ntoed that the U.S. will continue to be involved in Afghanistan with a focus on civilian and diplomatic activities.

I moderated an enjoyable dinner break-out session on minority politics with Congressman Alcee Hastings of Florida, Commissioner with the Helsinki Commission.  Also commenting was Marietje Schaake, MEP from the Netherlands. 

The night owl on "Mars and Venus" was very enjoyable, particularly with the comments from Robert Kagan, whose article 10 years ago led to greater understanding (and perhaps controversy) between the U.S. and Europe on foreign policy and military strategy, and Anne Marie Slaughter, former directory of policy planning in the State Department.

Brussels Forum, Day 2 #BF7, After the Revolutions

Another very successful Brussels Forum has come to a close.  Kudos to the team at the German Marshall Fund of the U.S. for putting on what is becoming the go-to meeting on Transatlantic relations. 

Saturday began with an important panel on "After the Revolutions: What Next for the Middle East and North Africa".  Concerns were raised about the development of Islamist extremism in the newly developing democracies like Libya.  Former president of Lebanon Gemayel called for a Marshall Plan for the Middle East to help stabilize the economic situation and allow governments to develop.

EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Baroness Catherine Ashton, noted that these changes are happening the in the EU's "neighborhood" and that "we should take responsibility for our neighborhood" developing engagement strategies that ensure that all people are included, particularly women.  She noted that Syria is important and that she is working closely with the UN, Arab League, Cairo group to figure out what to do when the violence ends.  She stated that Kofi Annan is capable and she has kept in regular contact with him as he works on the situation in Syria.  She stated taht te EU should support Annan and the friends of Syria, continuing to utilize sanctions and the delegation on the ground.

Former Governor Tim Pawlenty said that the U.S. needs to speak clearly and consistently about our values, recognizing behavior not rhetoric.  He noted that many U.S. politicians had gone to Syria before the unrest and had come back saying that Assad was a reformer.  It turns out that Assad is a killer and is trying to kill his way to victory.  He noted that the Arab Spring is a window of opportunity or a vacuum.  There needs to be capacity building to develop a culture of democracy.  He noted that Mubarak stole the 2010 parliamentary election in Egypt and the world was silent - it is important for those in positions of leadership to call out these situations, based on values.  He remarked that the  response to Syria was confused. His personal view is that the time has come for more direct assistance to Syrian rebels, short of boots on thed ground, including the establishment of a safe zone, arming rebels and economic assistance.  The assumption that Assad will inevitably fail is debatable.  Ashton's response was that the focus should be on the UN and the Security Council...

Mahmoud Gebril, former Prime Minister of Libya, emphasized the need to look at this as a new situation for the Middle East, after all it took France 82 years to get to democracy after its revolution.  He argued that it will take time and a change of culture to get to democratic behavior which requires 1)socialization, 2)education, 3)media transformation and 4)new religious interpretation.  It is important to note that the new generation is connected to the world through social media.  In the developmental process it isn't helpful to focus on only part of the approach.

More on the other panels in my next blog post...

Friday, March 23, 2012

Brussels Forum, Day 1 #BF7 - Immigration, etc...

Former Senator from Utah, Bob Bennet raised the issue of immigration and demographics during today's first panel  titled "Global Europe: Game Over?".  Immigration is a complicated and very political issue, as seen most recently in the French presidential election.  First, it is clear that Europe will need immigration in order to maintain it's population, however, the big question is what kind of immigration?  Most European countries have attempted to stop or at least slow immigration since the end of labor importation in the 1970s yet face growing ethnic or religious minority populations, partially due to family reunification, and refugees.  In the last couple of years politicians like David Cameron, Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy have said that multiculturalism has failed.  One can argue what that means, but it is clear that the issues around immigration go well beyond demographics. I can't address all of these issues in a blog post, but I encourage those who want more information on this topic to look at the websites of the Migration Policy Institute, http://migrationpolicy.org/ and other links which can be found on my other blog:  http://givensimmigration.blogspot.com

Other points of interest, Senator Jeanne Shaheen emphasized the importance of the EU-US relationship, Poland's Foreign Minister Sikorski emphasized the need for deeper political integration in the EU.

NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen emphasized the strength and importance of the NATO alliance.  He emphasized that without action by the UN Security Council that "NATO has no intention of intervening in Syria" and blamed Russia and China for encouraging the Assad regime.

There was a spirited discussion about Iran, and the "night owl" sessions focused on Syria, Asia and "soft power".

Brussels Forum

I will be blogging from the Brussels Forum this weekend, you can follow the livestream at http://www.livestream.com/brusselsforum and on Twitter you can follow me @TerriGivens and @gmfus today starting at 14:30 CET

The website for the Brussels Forum has lists of participants, briefing papers and the agenda: http://brussels.gmfus.org/

Sunday, March 18, 2012

Greece, Illegal Immigration and update on Euro crisis

The Migration Policy Institute has a new article on the issue of illegal immigration in Greece as it deals with its fiscal crisis: http://www.migrationinformation.org/Profiles/display.cfm?ID=884

Last week Germany and Austria called on Greece to tighten it's borders: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/09/world/europe/germany-and-austria-call-on-greece-to-tighten-immigration-controls.html?_r=1&adxnnl=1&adxnnlx=1332091973-4JZDUAmCeNThiwEvMq1Nng

Business Insider has an overview of what is going on in Eurozone countries this week: http://www.businessinsider.com/a-quick-guide-to-everything-going-on-in-europe-right-now-2012-3

This week I am preparing to attend the German Marshall Fund of the United States' Brussel Forum http://brussels.gmfus.org/ I will be blogging and tweeting @TerriGivens during the conference which begins this coming Friday.

Sunday, March 11, 2012

Minorities and Politics in Europe

My latest edited volume "Immigrant Politics" is scheduled to be released soon, so I couldn't resist putting in a link to this article from the UK Guardian.  Apparently demographics are playing a role in the Tory's focus on ethnic minority voters:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2012/mar/07/tory-party-natural-home-ethnic-minority?CMP=twt_fd

Immigration is also a hot topic in the French presidential election.  Nicolas Sarkozy is in a fight for his life with strong contenders on the left, but also a threat from Marine Le Pen on the right.  This weekend he threatened to exit the Schengen area if more isn't done to control immigration: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304450004577275313803633368.html
This has been an ongoing issue, particularly since the Arab Spring and the flood of refugees heading to Italy's island of Lampedusa, hoping to enter Italy and ultimately get to France. Another view of Sarkozy from Steven Erlanger of the New York Times: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/12/world/europe/sarkozy-in-rousing-talk-takes-conservative-stands.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

The fiscal crisis news continues unabated - Greece has been declared as officially defaulting as of Friday, so credit default insurance kicks in: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304537904577275462837459448.html

Paul Krugman writes on the lessons to be learned from Greece in his latest column: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/12/opinion/krugman-what-greece-means.html?src=tp

On a brighter note for the EU, Slovakia has elected a left government that should be more friendly to the bailout: http://news.yahoo.com/pro-european-left-sweeps-slovak-vote-targets-rich-160524601.html

Thursday, March 8, 2012

Women, Immigration and leadership in Europe

In honor of International Women's Day, I want to highlight the issues around women and immigration in Europe.  Here's a link to a video done by the European Parliament in 2007 on women and immigration in Europe: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KBEHEyovdzk

A few years ago, I took part in a Fulbright scholars' program on Muslims in France and Germany.  One of the challenges that immigrant women face is dealing with foreign school systems when they often don't speak the language.  Some schools were working with immigrant mother's, providing language training, and making sure they received information, but this continues to be a challenge.

The blog "Black Women in Europe" has put together a list of powerful black women in Europe: http://www.blogher.com/frame.php?url=http://blog.blackwomenineurope.com

Another blog focuses on networking for immigrant women: http://migrentrepreneurwomannetwork.wordpress.com/2012/03/07/networking-for-women-entrepreneurs-in-europe/

Beatrice Achaleke runs http://www.diversityleadership.eu/ which has an annual conference for women.

Happy blogging!

Saturday, March 3, 2012

National Politics and the European Fiscal Crisis

Despite EU leaders coming to agreement on new measures to handle the Euro crisis, countries like Spain and Ireland are taking actions on their own to deal with their domestic issues and constituencies.

The latest on Spain from the Irish Times "Spain says it will ignore this year's EU bet target": http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/world/2012/0303/1224312713374.html

Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel has managed to weather the storm so far, maintaining her popularity with the Germany public:  http://www.businessinsider.com/why-germans-still-love-angela-merkel-2012-3

Portugal's president says "new" poor can't take more austerity measures:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/02/29/portugal-austerity-idUSL5E8DT5EV20120229

Ireland and the referendum: http://uk.reuters.com/article/2012/02/28/uk-europe-ireland-referendum-idUKTRE81R1W420120228

...and I can't resist one more story on Greece:  http://www.cnn.com/2012/03/01/opinion/greece-democracy/index.html?hpt=ieu_mid

Friday, March 2, 2012

European Summit: mixed results

Quick Friday morning update:  25 of 27 member states sign off on a new treaty "designed to prevent the 17 members of the eurozone from living beyond their means and avoid a repeat of the region's crippling debt crisis." http://money.msn.com/business-news/article.aspx?feed=AP&Date=20120302&ID=14851984

However, Eurozone members delayed paying half of the most recent Greek bailout amid concerns that the Greek government would not be able to implement all of the austerity measures needed to reduce debt: http://www.kurat.com/links/eurozone-delays-half-of-greeces-funds-ftcom?&stream=greek-crisis-0
From the BBC:  http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-17219379

David Cameron pushes for changes to communique: http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012/mar/02/eu-summit-david-cameron-britain-voice-heard?newsfeed=true

Barroso pleased with outcome - press release:  http://europa.eu/rapid/pressReleasesAction.do?reference=SPEECH/12/146

Spain will miss deficit target: http://www.boston.com/business/articles/2012/03/02/spain_says_it_will_miss_2012_deficit_target/