Elections and Austerity - voter push-back

Sunday's first round of the French presidential election was a clear rebuke to France's Nicolas Sarkozy, but it is also worrying for EU officials that the far right National Front (FN) candidate, Marine Le Pen received the highest percentage of the vote ever for an FN candidate (18%) - a protest vote against EU policies? Along with elections coming up in Greece, and today's resignation of the government of Mark Rutte in the Netherlands (which will precipitate new elections), the EU's fiscal pact could be put in jeopardy. This will also have an impact on the growing debate between growth and austerity.  I expect election campaigns in all three countries to focus on the growth vs. austerity issue, as well as immigration, assimilation, and Muslims in Europe.

Election night results in France

It was no surprise that Nicolas Sarkozy and Francois Hollande advanced to the second round of the French presidential election today, however, polls did not predict the nearly 20% of the vote received by the candidate for the French National Front, Marine Le Pen.  This is much higher than her father received even in the second round of the 2002 presidential election.  Without seeing detailed survey data, it is hard to know whether this was more of a protest vote against Sarkozy, or a vote for Marine Le Pen, but it is clear that this was a rebuke to Sarkozy, who had been trying to court far right voters with a tough stance on immigration policy during the last few weeks of the campaign. Voters chose the candidate with the tougher stance...this may eventually have an impact on policy, depending on the results of the French legislative elections in June. The latest word is that Le Pen will decide on May 1st if she will endorse a candidate.

These results may also give heart to far right politicians in places like the Netherlands, which is expected to call a snap election, and the UK.  The far right has been on the rise since at least the 1990s, so this is not a totally new trend, but the results for Le Pen may indicate increasing support, at least in France.

This vote will give a boost to the National Front as it heads into the legislative campaign, with the possibility that they may be able to get a few candidates into the French Assembly in June.  The election was a disappointment for Jean-Luc Melenchon, who was predicted to get as high as 15% of the vote, but only received approximately 10%.  Overall turnout was strong at 80%.

Early polls suggest that Francois Hollande will get 54% of the vote to Sarkozy's 46% in the second round on May 6th.  The next two weeks will be spent with the two candidates fighting for far left and far right votes. 

Websites with up-to-date information on the election:
New York Times: http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/international/countriesandterritories/france/index.html
UK Guardian:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/french-elections-2012
France 24 - with video:
http://www.france24.com/en/category/tags-th%C3%A9matiques/french-presidential-election-2012

Election day in France

French news outlets were reporting turnout around 70% a few hours before polls were to close.  Here's a link to video from France 24 - http://www.france24.com/en/20120422-france-voters-presidential-election-polling-station-first-round-arrondisement

The main twitter hashtag for election news has been #France2012 but some tweeters are using the hashtag #radiolondres to get around the blackout on reporting election returns before polling stations close. However, Belgium's Le Soir was posting some early results: http://www.lesoir.be/dossiers_speciaux/special2/2012-04-21/decouvrez-les-premiers-resultats-910747.php

The night before the French election

It is unlikely that there will be many surprises in the French election on Sunday, the incumbent Nicolas Sarkozy and his main challenger, Francois Hollande will move on to the second round.  What is interesting, is what the vote will tell us about the French electorate's response to the candidacies on the extremes.  On the far right, Marine Le Pen hopes to at least match the percent of the vote received by her father in previous elections (~15%) and on the far left, Jean-Luc Melenchon's new left party hopes to come in third, giving the party a boost for future elections.  Steven Erlanger of the NY Times provides some context:

The success of Marine Le Pen's father, Jean Marie Le Pen, in 2002 was embarassing for French voters and has had an impact on subsequent elections.  Voters may be less likely to vote for extreme candidates to avoid an outcome where a mainstream candidate doesn't make it into the second round. I describe this as strategic voting in my book, Voting Radical Right in Western Europe. However, with the polls showing Hollande at around 30% of the vote, it is possible that far left voter's may feel that he is safe and vote for Melenchon.  I think it is more likely that voters will strategically abandon Marine Le Pen to give Sarkozy a boost into the second round.

French election, far right and crisis in Spain

The far right in Europe has been able to take advantage of the economic crisis to a certain extent, but this has not necessarily led to electoral success, and it seems unlikely that Marine Le Pen will repeat her father's feat of 2002, getting into the second round of the French presidential election: http://uk.reuters.com/article/2012/04/12/uk-eurozone-populism-idUKBRE83B0UD20120412

As the trial of Ander's Breivik starts this week, there are concerns over the spread of anti-Muslim organizations as described in this article from the UK Guardian:  http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/apr/14/breivik-trial-norway-mass-murderer

A year ago January I hosted a conference on this topic at UT Austin:  http://www.utexas.edu/cola/centers/european_studies/conferences%20and%20workshops/Past-Conferences-and-Workshops/Transatlantic%20Intolerance.php
The panelists examined the development of anti-immigrant and anti-Muslim groups in the U.S. and Europe in particular, and looking at linkages being made between them.  Politicians like Geert Wilders in the Netherlands has pushed for the development of a transnational organization to fight the spread of Islam. Clearly this is an ongoing concern, as highlighted in the report by the organization "Hope not Hate" mentioned in the Guardian article that examines "counter-jihad" organizations http://www.hopenothate.org.uk/counter-jihad/

This headline from the UK Telegraph says it all..."France elections 2012: Nicolas Sarkozy declared most unpopular president in history" http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/nicolas-sarkozy/9205652/France-elections-2012-Nicolas-Sarkozy-declared-most-unpopular-president-in-history.html

Photo: AFP/Getty
Meanwhile the crisis in Spain is on the minds of commentators like Paul Krugman: http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/04/15/insane-in-spain/?smid=tw-NytimesKrugman&seid=auto
And George Soros explains the background for the crisis in Europe: http://www.businessinsider.com/george-soros-on-the-eurozone-crisis-2012-4
and I had to add this editorial from Paul Krugman for Monday's Times: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/16/opinion/krugman-europes-economic-suicide.html?_r=1&smid=tw-NytimesKrugman&seid=auto
...and Nouriel Roubini's http://www.slate.com/articles/business/project_syndicate/2012/04/the_eurozone_problem_s_will_get_worse_unless_they_adopt_a_growth_strategy_.single.html

This is too much for one day, but will be useful for my class - A nice report from the Economist on Germany's economic model: http://www.economist.com/node/21552567

Spain continues as today's top story - but stocks rebound

Stocks rebounded this morning, as reported in the New York Times: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/12/business/daily-stock-market-activity.html?_r=1

Spain's problems seem intractable - this is the first article I have seen that discuss a potential withdrawal from EMU: http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ambroseevans-pritchard/100016130/spanish-epiphany-as-depression-deepens/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

More from Simone Foxman on Spain's troubles: hhttp://www.businessinsider.com/all-eyes-on-spanish-banks-2012-4ttp://www.businessinsider.com/all-eyes-on-spanish-banks-2012-4 

A day of upheaval for European markets

Markets tumbled in Europe today over concerns that Spain's borrowing costs were rising to unsustainable levels as reported in the New York Times: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/11/business/global/spain-bond-yields-rise-reviving-fears-of-a-renewed-euro-crisis.html?_r=1&adxnnl=1&adxnnlx=1334105000-daqlGimdCBOFOoG5i9JMZw

...and Business Week:  http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2012-04-10/spain-is-on-the-bleeding-edge-of-a-new-european-crisis

Simone Foxman of Business Insider characterized it as a day the markets got destroyed: http://www.businessinsider.com/european-markets-just-got-destroyed-2012-4

Financial stocks took a big hit: http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2012/04/10/european-bank-shares-take-a-nosedive/?ref=europeansovereigndebtcrisis

U.S. markets also ended lower, after falling on Monday due to a disappointing increase in employment levels.

Meanwhile, in the French election, the far left politician Jean-Luc Melenchon is polling a strong third, and may have an impact on the outcome for the top two candidates, incumbent Sarkozy and Socialist leader Holland: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/10/world/europe/in-french-elections-sound-and-fury-from-the-lefts-melenchon.html?_r=1&smid=tw-nytimesglobal&seid=auto

Holland is trying to maintain his lead while Sarkozy is running as an underdog: http://www.economist.com/node/21552246?fsrc=scn/tw/te/ar/climingmoutimprobbable

Back to the Euro Crisis and a commentary on foreign policy

I took a little break from the blog while getting over jet lag from Brussels and a quick trip to San Diego last weekend for the International Studies Association (ISA) conference.  I presented a paper on EU immigrant integration policy on a panel related to global migration policy cooperation. Also, I was featured in the Daily Texan: http://www.dailytexanonline.com/university/2012/04/05/blogger-government-professor-exemplifies-foreign-policy-savvy

In the meantime, the Euro crisis continues as described in the following article from Slate: http://www.slate.com/articles/business/moneybox/2012/04/eurozone_debt_crisis_it_s_time_to_panic_about_it_again_.html?wpisrc=twitter_socialflow

Another interesting and in-depth report from CBS News: http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-202_162-57410910/an-imperfect-union-europes-debt-crisis/

While the situation in Greece is at least temporarily under control, a recent suicide is stirring up public passions. http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-202_162-57410812/greece-violence-erupts-after-memorial-for-suicide/

On the foreign policy front, in a commentary for the Chicago Council on Foreign Affairs, Alberto Coll makes an argument for why Europe is still important : http://2012summits.org/commentaries/detail/coll_1

At least one comment (i.e., Adam Luedtke's :-)) has noted that I sound Euroskeptic - to the contrary, I am certain that the EU will have no problem surviving the current crisis.  However, I do think that it's very possible that Greece, and possible Portugal may end up leaving the Euro zone.  I think the reasons for this are more political than economic -- there is a great deal of political uncertainty right now, and only time will tell if the government in Athens will be able to maintain the needed fiscal austerity measures in the face of public discontent. Just keep following the developments in this blog!