Hanging out in DC - Updates on Europe

I'm in my second week in DC as a fellow at the Woodrow Wilson Center. While here, I'm working on finishing up writing a book on antidiscrimination policy and doing research on a book on comprehensive immigration reform.  My first day here in DC was spent at a conference on "The end of Multiculturalism" run by the Wilson Center's European Studies Program - the webcast is here, I'm in webcast 2 at the 37 minute mark: http://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/the-end-multiculturalism-europe-migrants-refugees-and-their-integration.

Today I attended a talk at the Atlantic Council by Dr. Josef Ackermann.  He spoke on "The Euro: A Dim and Dismal Future?"  The talk was broadcast on C-Span and can be watched here: http://www.c-span.org/Events/Outgoing-Deutsche-Bank-CEO-Discusses-Europes-Future/10737431213/

Key points included Ackermann's firm conviction that it can't be the end of the Euro. He believes that everything will be done to avoid the chaos and destruction of the Euro would being.  A Greek default would cost at least $500 billion and the spillover effects could double the cost.  He believes everything will be done to keep the Euro zone the way it is.  He noted that it was the (unnecessary) Greek election that brought things back to the point that they were at in December of 2011.

Akcermann pointed out that a fragmented Europe would have no way for self-determination -- only a united Europe can negotiate with the U.S. and China in the global marketplace.  He argued that European leaders need to explain the challenges and benefits of Europe.  There is no real leader of Europe, and peace is no longer a vision for young people who have no memory of war.  This may be the first that that Europe jointly solves a problem. Markets need to be patient and give Europe time to make the needed changes, which have in fact been caused by market pressures.

I came out of the talk feeling much more confident about the likelihood of Greece staying in the Euro zone, but I still think domestic politics are the wild card.  European leaders may want to keep the Euro zone together, but I worry that they may stumble into a situation where there's no other option (it's how Europe got into wars in the past).  Strong leadership is needed to chart a course through these choppy waters.