Why attention needs to be paid to French legislative elections in June

The outcome of the French presidential election this past weekend was not a surprise, although Sarkozy did indeed close in on Hollande at the end, but it was not enough to give him a second mandate.  There have been many analyses of the election and what it means, but little attention has been paid thus far to the upcoming French legislative elections in June.  Although the French Assembly has little power compared to the President, the June legislative election is critical for Hollande's ability to govern.  He will need a majority of leftists in the Assembly, otherwise, if the right can manage a majority, he will be faced with a divided government, and "cohabitation" as happened under Mitterrand and Chirac, who had to work with Prime ministers and majorities from the opposition.  As Jim Bitterman notes in a CNN report, Sarkozy set to work on Monday to strategize on getting a legislative majority for the right. (http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2012/05/07/after-the-french-election-will-divisions-remain/)

Bitterman also notes that there were 2 million blank ballots cast, while Sarkozy lost by 1.2 million votes.  This fact will be critical to the right's calculations as they look forward to the legislative elections.  Marine Le Pen may hold the key -- as I have written in my book on the Radical Right (Voting Radical Right in Western Europe) parties in France tend to use the first round of the two-round legislative election as a sort of primary.  The top candidates from the left and right will move forward, and candidates who come in behind them will usually agree to drop out, in order to give the top candidates a better chance of winning.  In past elections, the mainstream right has said that they would not cooperate with candidates from the National Front, which cost them seats.  It is yet to be determined what will happen in the upcoming election, now that Marine Le Pen has shown that she controls a large number of votes, which is concentrated in particular departments (see electoral map http://media.rtl.fr/online/image/2012/0423/7747131778_2012-les-cartes-du-premier-tour-le-vote-le-pen.jpg).  If the mainstream right agrees to coordinate with the National Front, it could mean that they could win several seats, potentially impacting Hollande's ability to get a majority. As has oft been said during this economic (and now political) crisis in Europe - chaos could ensue.

More Analysis:
From Steven Erlanger of the NY Times - on the same track as my comments above: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/08/world/europe/sarkozys-party-assesses-2-paths-after-loss.html?_r=1&pagewanted=all

http://globalspin.blogs.time.com/2012/05/07/after-winning-the-french-presidency-what-will-francois-hollande-do-next/

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-05-06/hollande-defeats-sarkozy-in-shift-of-power-to-french-socialists