Brussels Forum, Day 2 #BF7, After the Revolutions

Another very successful Brussels Forum has come to a close.  Kudos to the team at the German Marshall Fund of the U.S. for putting on what is becoming the go-to meeting on Transatlantic relations. 

Saturday began with an important panel on "After the Revolutions: What Next for the Middle East and North Africa".  Concerns were raised about the development of Islamist extremism in the newly developing democracies like Libya.  Former president of Lebanon Gemayel called for a Marshall Plan for the Middle East to help stabilize the economic situation and allow governments to develop.

EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Baroness Catherine Ashton, noted that these changes are happening the in the EU's "neighborhood" and that "we should take responsibility for our neighborhood" developing engagement strategies that ensure that all people are included, particularly women.  She noted that Syria is important and that she is working closely with the UN, Arab League, Cairo group to figure out what to do when the violence ends.  She stated that Kofi Annan is capable and she has kept in regular contact with him as he works on the situation in Syria.  She stated taht te EU should support Annan and the friends of Syria, continuing to utilize sanctions and the delegation on the ground.

Former Governor Tim Pawlenty said that the U.S. needs to speak clearly and consistently about our values, recognizing behavior not rhetoric.  He noted that many U.S. politicians had gone to Syria before the unrest and had come back saying that Assad was a reformer.  It turns out that Assad is a killer and is trying to kill his way to victory.  He noted that the Arab Spring is a window of opportunity or a vacuum.  There needs to be capacity building to develop a culture of democracy.  He noted that Mubarak stole the 2010 parliamentary election in Egypt and the world was silent - it is important for those in positions of leadership to call out these situations, based on values.  He remarked that the  response to Syria was confused. His personal view is that the time has come for more direct assistance to Syrian rebels, short of boots on thed ground, including the establishment of a safe zone, arming rebels and economic assistance.  The assumption that Assad will inevitably fail is debatable.  Ashton's response was that the focus should be on the UN and the Security Council...

Mahmoud Gebril, former Prime Minister of Libya, emphasized the need to look at this as a new situation for the Middle East, after all it took France 82 years to get to democracy after its revolution.  He argued that it will take time and a change of culture to get to democratic behavior which requires 1)socialization, 2)education, 3)media transformation and 4)new religious interpretation.  It is important to note that the new generation is connected to the world through social media.  In the developmental process it isn't helpful to focus on only part of the approach.

More on the other panels in my next blog post...